When word broke in January that Tom Cruise signed a deal to develop original and franchise pictures with Warner Bros. Discovery, including having an office for the actor’s Cruise/Wagner Productions company on the WBD lot, many ask if it’s a sign all isn’t well between Cruise and frequent collaborator Paramount Pictures. But while it’s a terrific “get” for Warner’s Motion Picture Group co-CEOs Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy, it can’t hurt the Cruise’s blockbuster relationship with Paramount.

THE DEAL

The deal with Warner is not even exclusive, nor is it a first-look situation prohibiting Cruise from shopping projects to other studios first. I suspect it’s in fact a preparation for a set of specific projects being considered and/or developed, including some Cruise is bringing to the studio to collaborate on, and a few franchises the studio wants Cruise to appear in (and I’ve a suspicion laced with hope that it might eventually involve conversations with James Gunn and Peter Safran over at DC Studios).

Warner and Cruise will no doubt make some big projects together and enjoy lots of success, if the star-producer’s history of picking winning projects and pairing with the right people is any guide. Edge of Tomorrow, The Last Samurai, and Interview With the Vampire, are some of the films Cruise made in some collaboration with Warner that were critical and/or financial successes, combining for $1 billion in box office.

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However, understanding that deal in the context of Cruise’s ongoing relationship with Paramount requires understanding at the math.

THE MATH

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning grossed $567.5 million around the world in 2023. After the final Mission: Impossible 8 movie for Cruise releasing in 2025 and upcoming Top Gun 3 release expected for 2026, across every decade for nearly 40 years, Tom Cruise will have been making Paramount an average of $772 million per film in two tentpole franchises totaling $8-8.5 billion.

Few stars can boast similarly successful longterm relationships with a studio and franchises, and this is without discussing the massive merchandising revenue streams behind both franchises, which adds billions more in revenue streams.

Then consider the sales and licensing for TV and streaming worldwide, the soundtracks and shirts, the buttons and collectables, and the rest of the merchandise. We’re talking about money-printing machines, as franchises go.

So at first glance, it might seem surprising Cruise is willing to step outside of that relationship. I saw reactions to the title change for this year’s Mission: Impossible 8, formerly Dead Reckoning Part 2, asking if this reflects continued debate about the marketing of the previous film and how to proceed, with an implication the title change and deal with WBD might be tied to those rumors of Cruise being displeased by the studio’s handling of Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1’s release.

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But I don’t believe the situation around the promotion and final box office for Dead Reckoning is as big of a deal as some make it out to be, nor are the implications of Cruise’s deal with WBD.

For what it’s worth, I suspect the title change of the sequel from its original Dead Reckoning Part 2 to simply Mission: Impossible 8 may be a temporary place-holding palate cleanser of sorts, to distance it from the impression of the “two-part story” pitch accompanying the first film.

Add a big, new marketing promotion and tie-in merchandising deals and a dynamic new title reflecting the fact it’s (supposedly, but questionably) Cruise’s final performance as Ethan Hunt, and I think audiences will be ready to turn out in numbers closer to what Cruise and Paramount hoped for last time around.

The Problem

The problems faced by Dead Reckoning Part 1 started with the fact 2023 was just a rough reset year for audiences and studios all around. It was the first year we returned to the box office in a supposed “end of the pandemic/return to normal” emergence, but everyone was still making up their minds about how much they were willing to emerge. Audiences had completely changed how they watch movies and TV, and were reorienting themselves toward more home viewing as they got used to it and realized they didn’t miss theaters much.

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But the biggest factor working against Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning was its release date. It hit theaters the weekend of July 14th, 2023. And that, unfortunately, turned out to be the weekend before the historic arrival of Barbie and Oppenheimer to take complete control of the box office and combine for a grand total of nearly $2.5 billion as they played through the end of summer, all of autumn, and into winter.

Indeed, Barbie didn’t leave theaters until January of 2024, and Oppenheimer remains in theaters to this day, actually seeing an increase in screens and box office receipts in the aftermath of it’s Oscar wins, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Supporting Actor.

So it’s understandable that Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning suffered the unfortunate fate of going up against the two biggest films of the year, in a year that audiences rejected the majority of tentpole and franchise releases.

However, after all films saw large declines the weekend Barbie and Oppenheimer debuted, the Mission: Impossible sequel declined a more blockbuster-typical 64%. Not a big hold, but avoiding a sizable drop in the face of overwhelming competition.

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The second weekend of the so-called “Barbenheimer” phenomenon is where things really get interesting, though. Dead Reckoning only suffered a 45% drop its third North American weekend against Barbie and Oppenheimer (which both once again dominated with massive numbers). And then, on its fourth weekend, Dead Reckoning only dropped about 38%. And then 30%.

Again, that’s just domestically. Internationally, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning performed even stronger, and those legs carried it to nearly $400 million in foreign receipts alone.

The Potential

Which is all to say, what might Dead Reckoning have grossed if it wasn’t up against two record-setting blockbusters that dominated the box office for half the year during a pandemic faux-recovery year?

Just a 10% rise internationally would’ve put Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning over the $600 million threshold, and that instantly means the entire M:I franchise has a majority of films that grossed more than $600 million. Add in a 10% domestic rise as well, and we’re talking about $620+ million and a per-film average of $600 million per film, up from the current actual average of $592 million.

That might not sound like much in relative terms, but it means a lot and the optics matter. It’s also important for the complicated “Hollywood math” used to determine various thresholds for backend points and other participation.

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I’m betting that, with such sustained audience attendance and final box office of $567 million for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning in spite of the obstacles in its path in the markeplace, Mission: Impossible 8 will surely see more than just a 10% increase over Dead Reckoning’s cume.

At a 20% rise compared to Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning’s performance, the next sequel could finish somewhere around $680 million, and with enough momentum and good word of mouth it could easily top $700 million. Or more, in fact, with that big promotional blitz about it (again, so they say) being Tom Cruise’s final mission against his most dangerous foe.

This brings us back to the original point about how lucrative Mission: Impossible movies are for Paramount and Cruise. The same is true, of course, for Top Gun films as well.

The Future

The first Top Gun flew into theaters on a wave of frenzied audience anticipation and scored top grades from critics and viewers, as well as $357 million in worldwide box office. That’s equivalent to $1 billion in today’s dollars, for the inflation-adjusted conscious, which is particularly relevant for these franchises since the film lacked the massive international marketplace and huge premium screens like IMAX and Dolby Cinema with higher ticket prices, both of which drive the biggest annual blockbusters consistently toward $1 billion.

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It’s no surprise, then, that Cruise’s continued star power could carry Top Gun: Maverick to greater heights and a $1.49 billion final global gross. At $1.8 billion combined, the two films set the stage for the upcoming third chapter to carry the franchise past the $3 billion line and possibly even toward $3.5 billion if it captures the public’s imaginations and hearts the way Maverick did.

Cruise is a powerhouse global star, one of the few left in Hollywood and perhaps the only one capable of delivering this sort of consistent box office and merchandising success across a span of almost 40 years. He’ll prove that when Mission: Impossible 8 arrives — maybe with a new title — May 23rd this summer. And he’ll prove it again with Top Gun 3, although we’re still waiting on the arrival time for that one.

But rest assured, it will come. Just as eventual Mission: Impossible sequels will come, probably with Cruise involved or returning after a brief hiatus. There’s an $8 billion partnership to maintain, and Warner Bros. Discovering won’t get in the way of that.