- Top Gun: Maverick surpassed all expectations at the box office, proving that there is still a huge audience eager to see Tom Cruise in the cockpit after decades.
- The underperformance of another Tom Cruise sequel indicates that he needs Top Gun 3 now more than ever, as the Top Gun franchise is his most reliable and guaranteed hit-maker.
- While the release date of Top Gun 3 is uncertain due to Cruise’s busy schedule, it is likely to happen no earlier than 2026 and has a strong chance of being a summer blockbuster success.
How Netflix Saved This Will Smith Flo
Tom Cruise’s latest blockbuster surprisingly underperformed at the box office, which is likely good news for Top Gun 3. Audiences waited a long time, but the 36-year gap between the original Top Gun and its first sequel was worth it. Top Gun: Maverick earned better reviews than its predecessor, and the sequel also managed the almost impossible task of outperforming the original movie financially. Top Gun: Maverick grossed almost $1.5 billion at the box office, a staggering sum that proved audiences were still eager to see Tom Cruise’s titular character back in the cockpit even after so many decades.
However, this didn’t necessarily help the actor’s next outings. In 2023, another Tom Cruise sequel performed disappointingly at the box office. Despite earning stellar reviews, it brought in only $567.5 million on a budget of $291 million, marking Cruise’s first financial failure since 2017’s The Mummy. The unexpected franchise misstep showed the industry that Cruise needs the third Top Gun movie now more than ever.
Mission: Impossible 7’s Box Office Proves Tom Cruise Needs Top Gun 3
Top Gun Is Now Cruise’s Most Reliable Franchise
While Tom Cruise was clearly invested in Top Gun: Maverick judging by how heavily involved he was in the sequel’s production, he didn’t seem to need the movie for his own career’s sake. The consistent success of the Mission: Impossible movies meant that Top Gun: Maverick was a much bigger deal for supporting stars Miles Teller and Glen Powell than it was for Cruise. However, the comparative failure of the 2023 sequel Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One means that the tables have now turned. Cruise needs Top Gun 3 more than ever since the high-flying action franchise is his only guaranteed hit-maker.
As the future of the Mission: Impossible series becomes harder to predict, it simultaneously becomes clearer that the Top Gun franchise could be Cruise’s biggest performer in years to come. This would make sense for practical reasons and also financially. Cruise is aging out of performing the death-defying stunts that defined his time in the Mission: Impossible series. While there is a good chance that Cruise will continue to perform his own stunts for years to come, Top Gun 3 could be better than further Mission: Impossible movies for Cruise, as the former sequel would allow his character to move into less active duty.
When Could Top Gun 3 With Tom Cruise Actually Happen?
Top Gun 3 will not happen for a while, although it is fair to say that the movie will not repeat the 36-year gap between the original and its first sequel. Originally, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One was intended to be followed by Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part Two in June 2024, but a combination of strikes and reactions to the latest installment’s underperformance resulted in this release date being delayed. Now, the reportedly re-titled sequel will not arrive until May 23, 2025, which would theoretically allow viewers more time to miss Cruise’s super spy Ethan Hunt. As such, Cruise must avoid undercutting his own box-office prospects.
This means that Top Gun 3 couldn’t happen until 2026 at the earliest, and the movie is almost guaranteed to be released in summer since the entire franchise is defined by its sunny blockbuster tone. Add in the fact that whether Top Gun 3 happens is reportedly Cruise’s decision, with the producers saying that the actor’s schedule decides if and when it can commence, audiences can be guaranteed that Cruise’s Maverick won’t be back on the screen for a few years. That said, Maverick’s absence from cinemas didn’t hurt his last sequel, further proving that long waits don’t always hurt major movies.
Even Top Gun 3 Would Struggle To Beat Top Gun: Maverick’s Box Office
Top Gun: Maverick’s Performance Wildly Outdid Expectations
While Top Gun 3 might be able to outdo Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One’s subpar box office performance, it would be pretty incredible if the movie managed to outdo Top Gun: Maverick’s success. The 2022 sequel was a bigger hit than even the most optimistic forecasts suggested, with many commentators expecting that the movie wouldn’t even match the original Top Gun’s box office performance. As such, it would be almost impossible for the next sequel to outdo it. That said, it seemed like Top Gun: Maverick couldn’t possibly beat its predecessor either, so Top Gun 3 proving an even bigger box office success is still a distinct possibility.
