Tom Cruise is returning for Top Gun 3, but it is practically impossible for the movie to break a major Tom Cruise franchise box office record. The Top Gun franchise’s return in 2022 proved to be much bigger than ever expected. Top Gun: Maverick made nearly $1.5 billion at the worldwide box office and even secured a Best Picture Oscar nomination. The success made the likelihood of Top Gun 3 happening quite high. It was more so a matter of when, not if, the sequel would happen, with news surfacing in early 2024 that Top Gun 3 is in development.

Although Top Gun 3 might still be years away at this point, as there is no confirmed release date, expectations are already sky-high for the Tom Cruise sequel. This certainly includes the massive box office haul that the movie will now be projected to have. Paramount will surely be counting on at least another $1 billion from Top Gun 3 to follow up Top Gun: Maverick’s record-breaking box office. There is a chance that the sequel will break box office records for the Top Gun franchise or even its star. However, there is one Tom Cruise record that seems impossible.

RelatedTop Gun 3 is reportedly in the works, and here are 10 things that need to be in the film in order to properly follow up on Top Gun: Maverick.

Top Gun’s Box Office Is $2.3 Billion Behind Becoming Tom Cruise’s Biggest Franchise

Whenever Top Gun 3 is released, the movie will help contribute to the growing Top Gun franchise box office total. The original 1986 movie kicked off the series with a $357 million haul, not adjusted for inflation. Top Gun: Maverick contributed the most to increasing the franchise’s total thanks to its $1.4 billion performance. The long-awaited sequel made it so the Top Gun franchise’s box office total is currently $1.85 billion. That’s a very impressive total for Tom Cruise, considering this franchise only has two entries at the moment, but it is still far behind his biggest franchise.

Tom Cruise’s highest grossing movie franchise is Mission: Impossible. With seven films released, the Mission: Impossible franchise’s box office totals $4.13 billion. This includes the performance of Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning in 2023. While the Top Gun movies have a higher box office average than Mission: Impossible, the quantity of films released gives the latter the edge in terms of total performance. This also means that Top Gun is $2.28 billion behind Mission: Impossible to become Tom Cruise’s biggest franchise at the box office, which makes that the current target if Top Gun 3 is to break the record.

Mission: Impossible 8 Will Make Top Gun 3’s Box Office Challenge Even More Difficult

The idea of Top Gun 3 making over $2.2 billion so Top Gun can be Tom Cruise’s biggest franchise is already difficult considering only three movies have ever eclipsed the necessary haul. However, the upcoming release of Mission: Impossible 8 will make the challenge even greater. No matter how well or poorly the movie performs at the box office, Mission: Impossible‘s franchise total will still increase in some fashion. The question for Top Gun 3 is just how much money will Mission: Impossible 8 make after Dead Reckoning‘s underperformance.

RelatedMission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 did not have the box office performance expected. Here’s what went wrong and what if Part 2 can recover.

Top Gun 3‘s box office targets could look wildly different based on which end of the Mission: Impossible franchise’s box office spectrum the untitled eighth installment winds up on. Even if Mission: Impossible 8 falters and has one of the franchise’s lowest hauls, it would still likely make at least $400 million. If it breaks records to become the highest grossing Mission: Impossible movie, its box office could exceed $800 million. That could mean Mission: Impossible 8 pushes the franchise’s box office total close to or above $5 billion, putting Top Gun potentially $3 billion behind.

Tom Cruise Needs Top Gun 4 To Break Mission: Impossible’s Box Office Record

Since Mission: Impossible‘s box office total will be even higher by the time Top Gun 3 comes out, the chances of Top Gun becoming Tom Cruise’s highest grossing movie franchise with only three films likely will not happen. This means that the action movie star will probably need to make Top Gun 4 if he wants Top Gun to hold this record. That would give the aerial franchise two opportunities to make up the current $2.2 billion gap between Top Gun and Mission: Impossible‘s box office totals, which is much more achievable if audiences remain interested in Maverick’s adventures.

With Mission: Impossible 8 rumored to be Tom Cruise’s exit from the franchise, it would make sense for him to pivot his attention towards making more Top Gun movies beyond the upcoming third installment. The only potential hold-up is that this would mean that Cruise needs to return as Maverick for Top Gun 4 in some capacity. As long as Tom Cruise’s character does not die to make Rooster or Hangman the new lead, he could still return for a fourth film and possibly break his franchise box office record after Top Gun 3.

Source: Box Office Mojo